20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World

In the midst of a changing economy, most executives continue to use a strategy toolkit designed for yesterday's more stable marketplace. As a result, strategies emerge that neither manage the risks nor take advantage of the opportunities that arise in highly uncertain times. Now, McKinsey & Company consultant Hugh Courtney argues that managers must move beyond the outdated all-or-nothing view of strategy in which future events are either certain or uncertain. Instead, he suggests a simple - yet powerful - alternative: understand the level of uncertainty you are facing in a given situation, and you will make better, more informed strategic choices. Based on an international review of the key strategy problems faced by over one hundred leading companies, Courtney reveals how executives can develop 20/20 foresight - a view of the future that separates what can be known from what can't. While executives with 20/20 foresight can rarely develop perfect forecasts of the future, says Courtney, they can isolate th...